Study Says Natural Gas Use Likely to Double
New York Times
24 June 2010
By Mathew L. Wald
WASHINGTON — Natural gas will provide an increasing share of America’s
energy needs over the next several decades, doubling its share of the
energy market to 40 percent, from 20 percent, according to a report to
be released Friday by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The increase, the report concluded, will come largely at the expense of
coal and will be driven both by abundant supplies of natural gas — made
more available by shale drilling — and by measures to restrict the
carbon dioxide emissions that are linked to climate change.
In the long term, however, the future may be dimmer for natural gas if
stricter regulations are put in place to cut greenhouse gas emissions
by 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 — a goal set by President
Obama. Although lower in carbon than coal, natural gas is still too
carbon-intensive to be used under such a target absent some method of
carbon capture, the authors of the report concluded.
The report, one of a series on energy resources, is the result of a
two-year effort by 14 prominent energy experts, led by Ernest J. Moniz,
an M.I.T. professor who is a former under secretary of energy. Previous
reports focused on nuclear power and coal. The report was financed in
part by the American Clean Skies Foundation, which represents the
interests of the natural gas industry.
In the report, the authors point out that there is a mismatch between
current energy practice in the United States and the nation’s energy
goals. As zero-carbon wind is added to the national electric system,
the report said, it is being used to reduce consumption of natural gas,
which is relatively benign in carbon impact, rather than coal, which
has twice as much carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour. The reason is that
gas is more expensive than coal.
Gas will eventually replace some of the coal used to make electricity,
the study predicts, and gas will be the benchmark against which other
carbon-saving technologies like wind or nuclear will be measured. But
those other technologies will eventually be needed.
Some companies that make equipment for coal- and gas-fired generating
stations say that the switch to gas from coal has already begun. One
reason is that switching to gas will make it easier to meet air quality
standards for conventional pollutants, like smog and mercury.
The study noted that the only natural gas car sold by a major car
company in the United States, the Honda GX, costs an extra $5,500,
while the VW Passat TSI Eco-fuel, sold only in Europe, costs only
$3,700 extra. Converting a gasoline vehicle to natural gas is also much
more expensive here than in Europe, the report said, and it suggests
that the reasons be examined.
High-mileage fleet vehicles, like taxis, could be economically
converted to natural gas, the study said. But the recent history of
natural gas vehicles in the United States suggests that buses and small
delivery vehicles are more likely candidates for conversion than the
great mass of privately owned vehicles.
Natural gas vehicles emit about three-quarters as much carbon dioxide
per mile as gasoline-powered ones. The switch would not have a large
impact on carbon — only about a ton per vehicle per year for a typical
American car, according to the report.
“There is no longer any doubt that we have the capacity to repower our
electricity sector and move away from dirtier fuels,” said Gregory C.
Staple, the chief executive of the American Clean Skies Foundation, in
a statement.
T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman, said that the study paid too much
attention to the electricity sector and not enough to using natural gas
as a substitute for gasoline and diesel in transportation.
“You’ve got plenty of gas to do both,” he said.
Natural gas has an erratic price history, which has made some American
electric utilities nervous about overreliance. But “abundant global
natural gas resources imply greatly expanded natural gas use,” the
study concluded.
Globally, the average projection of the amount of recoverable gas
represents about a century and a half’s supply at current rates of
consumption, the report noted. In the United States, the amount of
recoverable gas is equal to 92 times the consumption last year, the
study said.
Especially in the United States, one reason for new optimism about
supplies is the success that drillers have had exploring shale
formations for natural gas. Shale drilling requires fracturing the
rock, a technique called “fracking.” The method has raised concern
about damage to underground water supplies and faces opposition from
environmental groups, especially in areas that do not now have oil and
gas drilling.
Somewhat like oil, natural gas deposits are disproportionately
concentrated in the Middle East. Natural gas can be chilled until it
turns into a liquid and then shipped by tanker, and the American
capacity to import such gas has grown, but a long supply chain for
natural gas could come to represent another energy vulnerability, the
report said.